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How the war in Ukraine might affect global food supply

Ukraine is among the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products that account for more than a fifth of the country’s export volume of 49.5 billion USD. If the war in Ukraine leads to interruptions of the agricultural production and subsequent exports should stop, several other countries will be affected and can be confronted with shortages of food supply. Negative effects are not limited to Ukraine’s direct trading partners alone. Here we present an assessment of the expected losses various countries might suffer.

We consider direct trade relations between Ukraine and other countries as well as indirect effects from countries that act as intermediaries the potential losses of domestic production due to missing inputs from Ukraine. We find that a loss of agricultural production in Ukraine due to the Russian invasion poses a serious threat to food security in several countries of the Mideast and Northern Africa.

Substantial losses of up to 83% in maize, 99% in soybeans, and 45% in wheat are found for some
countries. In Europe, Latvia and Poland could be confronted with losses of 83% in maize and 81% in soybeans, respectively. Indirect effects induce losses in the meat production in some European countries. Results are available in interactive format.


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