Complexity Science Hub: Effects of a total loss in Ukrainian food production

04.03.2022

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Effects of a total loss in Ukrainian food production

TWO STEPS DOWN THE FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN

The world is watching the war in Ukraine with ever-increasing concern.

One of the many reasons the Russian invasion could turn into a huge problem for the world as a whole is the the fact that the country is one of the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products, especially of maize, wheat, and sunflower seed oil.

What happens if we loose these products? CSH scientists modeled the direct and indirect effects of a worst-case scenario, i.e., a total production loss in the Ukraine.

They compiled their findings in a Policy Brief, written by Moritz Laber, Peter Klimek, Liuhuaying Yang, Tobias Reisch, and Stefan Thurner.

CSH POLICY BRIEF 2/2022:

HOW THE WAR IN UKRAINE MIGHT AFFECT GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY

Liu produced two infographics showing direct and indirect losses throughout the world (below).

FOLLOW THIS LINK FOR AN INTERACTIVE, HIGH-RESOLUTION VERSION.

EFFECTS ON SUNFLOWER SEED OIL AVAILABILITY

2022 03 04 Sunflower Seed Oil
Effects on sunflower seed oil availability in different countries if Ukraine (black) loses 100% of its sunflower seed oil production (given that other countries do not change trading partners or use substitute products). For sunflower seed oil, the direct trade contribution (yellow) dominates, indirect effects (blue) are less important. Countries are ordered by their approximate geolocation. Largest relative losses occur in African and Mideastern countries. European countries are less affected.

EFFECTS ON MAIZE AVAILABILITY

2022 03 04 Maize
Losses in global maize availability in different countries if Ukraine (black) loses 100% of its maize production (if countries do not change suppliers or substitute maize with other products). Indirect effects (blue circles) play a major role on top of the losses expected from direct trade (yellow). Direct losses are noticeable in the Mideast and the Baltic countries. Indirect effects occur in Southern Europe.

Related

04.03.2022
M. Laber, P. Klimek, T. Reisch, L. Yang, S. Thurner

Explore effects of global supply disruptions via interactive visualizations and maps.

Explore which food products are lost and which countries are affected most severely when a specific supplier stops to produce a single food product.

Show direct and indirect effects of a 100% supply shock of maize and sunflower seed oil on a stylized world map.

Ein Team des Complexity Science Hub Vienna simulierte…
PNAS
Global food trade creates a complex network of dependencies
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