THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED.

The coronavirus (Covid-19) epidemic in China will have severe effects on the Austrian economy. According to calculations by the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH), especially companies that manufacture electronic and optical products, machines and machine parts, motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts will have to be prepared for losses.

For their forecast the CSH scientists are using their newly developed economic model. “The model maps all international trade links that are relevant to Austria,” explains complexity researcher Peter Klimek. “Knowing trade networks worldwide we not only see direct effects of economic shocks, we can also calculate indirect effects on individual economies”, adds Klimek. The model allows predictions about the impact of shocks in one country on economies worldwide.

CSH president Stefan Thurner: “Previous calculations on Covid-19 simply scale up the costs of the SARS epidemic in 2003. But the Chinese economy has grown by a factor of 6 since 2003, and consumption in China has become a driving force of the global economy. The dimension of an epidemic in present-day China cannot be compared to 2003.”

For China, Peter Klimek, Tobias Reisch and Stefan Thurner predict losses in trade and tourism of € 90 billion. The calculations are based on the current state of the epidemic. In total the costs could add up to € 300 billion or 2.5% of the Chinese GDP, the scientists state.