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Predicting COVID-19 peaks around the world

The official data for the time evolution of active cases of COVID-19 pandemics around the world are available online. For all countries, a peak has been either observed (China and South Korea) or is expected in near future. The approximate dates and heights of those peaks imply in important epidemiological issues. Inspired by similar complex behaviour of volumes of transactions of stocks at NYSE and NASDAQ, we propose a q-statistical functional form which appears to describe satisfactorily the available data of all countries.

Consistently, predictions become possible of the dates and heights of those peaks in severely affected countries unless efficient treatments or vaccines, or sensible modifications of the adopted epidemiological strategies, emerge.


C. Tsallis, U. Tirnakli, Predicting COVID-19 peaks around the world, Front. Phys. 8 (2020) 217

Constantino Tsallis, External Faculty at the Complexity Science Hub, celebrates his 80th birthday

Constantino Tsallis

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