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No signs of electoral fraud in Brazil’s 2022 presidential election

The presidential election in Brazil on October 30, 2022 has evoked a heated debate and speculation on electoral fraud. Given the tiny margin of less than 1% of votes, by which LI Lula has won the election, it is important to estimate if and to what extent election fraud might have taken place. And if there was electoral fraud, whether it was significant in determining the election or not.

Here we present an election forensic analysis of the second round of the recent Brazilian presidential elections. It clarifies to what extent voting irregularities are detectable in the outcomes of the election data on the level of voting stations and whether these irregularities were relevant for the election outcome.

The employed test quantifies the extent to which the observed election results are compatible with the specific types of electoral malpractices. In particular, we test for statistical fingerprints of “ballot stuffing” (multiple ballots per person during the voting process) and “voter rigging” (intimidation and coercion of voters).

These tests identify statistical anomalies in the election results. We find no statistical signs for election fraud for both types of electoral malpractices. In the following we present the analysis in detail.

Peter Klimek, Faculty member at the Complexity Science Hub

Peter Klimek

Stefan Thurner @ Franziska Liehl, President of the Complexity Science Hub

Stefan Thurner

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