A new research brief by the Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, and TU Delft analyzes the global trade and shipping impacts of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.

Around 20% of global oil shipments pass through the waterway between Oman and Iran. The study finds that a prolonged closure could affect about USD 1.2 trillion in annual trade flows from Gulf exporters including Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Energy products—crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and refined petroleum products—account for roughly USD 800 billion of these flows.

Using an agent-based maritime transport model, the researchers simulate shipping disruptions of different durations. The results show that short interruptions of up to two weeks have limited economic impact, while disruptions longer than four weeks could trigger disproportionate effects as delays cascade through the global trading networks.

For the European Union, exposure of USD 47 billion is relatively small, with Italy and Belgium among the most exposed due to energy imports from Qatar. Austria’s direct exposure is minimal, though indirect effects through European energy prices could be substantial.

The findings highlight the importance of rapid conflict de-escalation and contingency planning for prolonged disruptions to global supply chains.