Despite its pervasive implications, many cities worldwide continue to expand in a fragmented, horizontal manner.

We analyse urban growth dynamics in 69 Mexican metropolitan areas from 1990 to 2020 using census data, developing a model of urban form change based on population size, density, and spatial configuration.

We employ a radial probability density function and the urban expansion factor to create a framework for comparing urban expansion over time and across different regions.

Over the past three decades, Mexico’s urban population has nearly doubled. However, populations have shifted outward, resulting in a decline of 2.5 million residents in central areas.

Our analysis shows that distances from the city centre have increased by 28% on average, driven by population losses in central zones combined with growth in peripheral regions.

G.G. Peraza-Mues, E. Resendiz, R. Figueroa-Soriano, R. Prieto-Curiel, R. Ponce-Lopez, Scaling and Population Loss in Mexican Urban Centres, Nature Communications 17 (2026) 9036.