Pioneering research on cartel dynamics in Latin America earns Complexity Science Hub researcher global recognition, shaping the future of public safety and social policy.
CSH faculty member Rafael Prieto-Curiel has been awarded the prestigious Science Breakthrough of the Year 2024 by the Falling Walls Foundation in the category of Social Sciences & Humanities. His groundbreaking research provides profound new insights into the operations of cartels in Latin America, marking a significant leap in the quantitative understanding of organized crime.
A QUANTITATIVE APPROACH TO CARTEL OPERATIONS
Prieto-Curiel’s research delves deep into the complexities of cartel operations in Mexico, using a quantitative model to analyze homicides, arrests, and cartel behavior. His work indicates that cartels are the fifth largest employer in Mexico, a finding that underscores the pervasive impact of these criminal organizations.
Rafael Prieto-Curiel will be speaking at the Falling Walls Science Summit 2024 in Berlin on November 9.
“Our model challenges current narratives by showing that simply increasing arrests has limited effects on reducing violence. Instead, the secret to cartel success is recruitment,” says Prieto-Curiel, suggesting that socio-economic interventions could be more impactful than increased policing alone.
His findings have sparked widespread discussions, including a response from Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. “This is significant, as our research aims to provide crucial insights for policymakers, particularly in countries facing budget constraints,” states Prieto-Curiel. His model can help answer critical questions, such as whether resources should be invested in security forces or social programs to dismantle cartels within a reasonable timeframe.
By drawing lessons from global experiences, such as Italy’s battle against the mafia or New York’s violence reduction strategies, Prieto-Curiel’s research seeks to offer a blueprint for addressing organized crime more effectively, not just in Latin America but around the world.
FROM MEXICO TO VIENNA
Born in Mexico, Rafael Prieto-Curiel has had a dynamic career, starting with a degree in Applied Mathematics and five years working for the Mexico City Police Department, where he focused on crime forecasting. His passion for understanding crime led him to pursue a master’s and PhD in Applied Mathematics at University College London (UCL) and a postdoctoral position at the University of Oxford.
Now, at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Prieto-Curiel leads the Human Migration Research Group and co-leads research on crime, where he continues to explore the dynamics of violence and organized crime in Latin America. Additionally, he serves as a consultant for major international organizations like the OECD and the World Bank, advising on urban crime and violence through a scientific lens.
THE FALLING WALLS RECOGNITION
The Falling Walls Foundation seeks to celebrate the most significant breakthroughs in science, particularly those addressing global challenges. Prieto-Curiel’s award in the Social Sciences & Humanities category recognizes his contributions to understanding the intricate dynamics of cartels and the profound societal impact of his work.
As a Science Breakthrough of the Year 2024 awardee, Rafael Prieto-Curiel joins a distinguished group of scholars whose work pushes the boundaries of what we know about human society. His innovative approach, using quantitative tools and mathematical models, provides a unique perspective on organized crime and the broader implications for violence reduction and policy development.
