Rafael Prieto-Curiel brings a data-driven approach to cartel operations at the Falling Walls Science Summit 2024, delivering profound insights into one of Latin America’s most urgent challenges.
How do you disrupt a system that employs more people than many large companies? At the Falling Walls Science Summit in Berlin, CSH researcher Rafael Prieto-Curiel presented his research on the dynamics of organized crime in Mexico. Earlier this year, he was named Science Breakthrough of the Year 2024 in the Social Sciences and Humanities category.
Prieto-Curiel’s work sheds light on cartel operations through a data-driven lens, offering new perspectives on one of Latin America’s most pressing challenges. His models estimate that Mexican cartels have between 160,000 and 185,000 members, making them the country’s fifth-largest employer. His findings challenge traditional punitive approaches, revealing that even doubling arrests has minimal impact on reducing violence. Instead, he advocates targeting recruitment, as his research suggests this is the most effective way to disrupt cartel operations.
Prieto-Curiel’s academic journey began in Mexico, where he studied applied mathematics and worked with the Mexico City Police Department on crime forecasting. After earning advanced degrees from University College London and the University of Oxford, his research now focuses on migration, mobility, and crime at CSH. His work has gained recognition not only in academic circles but also from global organizations such as the OECD and the World Bank.
The Falling Walls Foundation, which honors the year’s most significant scientific breakthroughs, recognized Prieto-Curiel for his ability to merge quantitative analysis with pressing social issues. His research has the potential to reshape not only our understanding of organized crime but also how governments might more effectively address it.
The Falling Walls Science Summit, held annually in Berlin, brings together leading minds across disciplines to showcase breakthroughs that address global challenges. Researchers are asked to share how their work “breaks walls.” Prieto-Curiel’s talk emphasized the importance of understanding the structure and behavior of cartels to inform more effective policies aimed at reducing violence and organized crime.
