Researchers from the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) and the Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII) have analysed the dependencies in Austria’s oil supply and modelled three crisis scenarios. The finding: nearly all crude oil used in Austria flows through a single pipeline. In the event of a prolonged outage, strategic reserves would be exhausted within a matter of months.
IN A NUTSHELL
- 94% of Austria’s oil is supplied via the Trans-Alpine Pipeline (TAL) – its operation was briefly interrupted in March due to a suspected act of sabotage
- About 52% of the oil is imported from Kazakhstan and transported via the CPC pipeline to Novorossiysk and then by tanker to Trieste. Recent Ukrainian attacks struck the neighboring Russian terminal.
- Austria’s current strategic oil reserves are sufficient for about 100 days of normal operation
- In the event of a complete shutdown of the TAL, they would be exhausted in less than four months; if Kazakhstani supplies were halted, in about six months
- This underscores the need for a significantly more diversified energy supply infrastructure
94 percent of the crude oil consumed in Austria enters the country via the Trans-Alpine Pipeline (TAL) – from the marine terminal in Trieste to the Schwechat refinery south-east of Vienna. The remaining six percent comes from domestic production at the Matzen oil field. The TAL is thus by far the most critical infrastructure node in Austria’s energy supply.
Just how vulnerable this configuration is became apparent on 25 March 2026, when a damaged electricity pylon near Udine brought the flow of oil to a standstill for three days. Italian authorities are investigating the incident for possible sabotage.
Around 52 percent of Austria’s oil originates in Kazakhstan. It travels via the CPC pipeline to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and from there by tanker to Trieste. Ukrainian drone strikes have hit the Russian export terminal at Novorossiysk repeatedly in recent weeks – the Kazakh CPC export facilities have so far remained undamaged.
“Austria’s oil supply is concentrated on a single pipeline, a single port and a single dominant supplier – and that supplier’s export routes are today among the most conflict-affected in the world. Strategic reserves currently provide an adequate buffer, but a prolonged failure at any one of these bottlenecks would deplete stocks within months,” explains study author Stefan Thurner, President of the Complexity Science Hub.
“Complex supply systems are often more robust than they appear – until a critical node fails. What our analysis makes visible is the extreme concentration: when 94 percent of oil supply runs through a single corridor, a single disruption is enough to put the entire supply chain under pressure,” says Peter Klimek, Director of ASCII.
THREE SCENARIOS, THREE TIME HORIZONS
Austria holds strategic oil reserves under the framework of the International Energy Agency (IEA), currently sufficient for around 100 days of normal consumption – approximately 70 percent of which falls on the transport sector. The researchers modelled three supply disruptions:
Scenario 1 – Failure of Middle East imports (12% of imports): Reserves decline gradually; at unchanged consumption levels, they would be exhausted after just over two years.
Scenario 2 – Failure of Kazakh oil (55% of imports): In the event of a permanent halt via Novorossiysk, stocks would be depleted in around six months.
Scenario 3 – Complete closure of the TAL (effectively 100% of imports): The most severe scenario. At normal consumption, strategic reserves would be exhausted in less than four months.
“This underlines the need for a significantly more diversified energy supply infrastructure and intensified efforts to reduce energy dependency in the years ahead,” says Thurner.
IEA RESERVE RELEASE AS CURRENT BUFFER
In response to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, IEA member countries agreed on 11 March 2026 to the largest coordinated reserve release in the agency’s history: 400 million barrels. Austria’s contribution amounts to 2.4 million barrels; the first tranche was released on 20 April 2026. The current situation is therefore stable – though in a worst-case scenario, for no more than 100 days.
About the policy brief
The policy brief “Exposure of Austrian Oil Supplies and Potential Consequences in Three Crisis Scenarios” by Mitja Devetak, Kjartan van Driel, Peter Klimek, and Stefan Thurner was published on April 28, 2026, and is available at the following link.
