Event

Modelling Social Transition

23 July 2025
Expired!
3:00 pm - 3:30 pm

Location

Library
Metternichgasse 8, 1030 Vienna

  • Attendance on site
  • Language EN

Event

Modelling Social Transition

Social transitions, as a collective phenomenon, are far from being fully understood. Especially, the question of why some transitions, where a large number of individuals alter their opinions, happen gradually, such as the adoption of technology in the early 1900s, while others occur abruptly, such as the Arab Spring, which happened in 2011. In this talk, I will introduce a simple model that highlights two key factors that drive social behavior: homophily and utility. In the model, agents base their choice either through the majority-rule, or the utility brought by adoption of the opinion. With probability pm, the individual decides on the majority-rule. When a majority of friends oppose a certain opinion, an individual might not be inclined to adopt it. This is related to the phenomenon of homophily, the tendency of people to be surrounded by those who share similar features and opinions. With probability 1 − pm, the decision is made according to the attractiveness or utility of adopting the opinion. We study the dynamical response of a society as the attractiveness of an opinion varies. The model predicts 3 types of transition: gradual and reversible, abrupt and reversible, and abrupt and irreversible. Remarkably, we found a variety of empirical data that display exactly these features, in the context of consumer behaviour, alcohol and drug abuse, elections, and fertility rates. Lastly, I will discuss how the model can be extended to study a well-known psychological theory – the theory of planned behavior.  

RSVP

X

Speaker(s)

Ning Ning Chung

0 Pages 0 Press 0 News 0 Events 0 Projects 0 Publications 0 Person 0 Visualisation 0 Art

Signup

CSH Newsletter

Choose your preference
   
Data Protection*