Event

Modeling Dengue Outbreaks from Imported Cases in Non-Endemic Countries

09 August 2024
Expired!
3:00 pm - 3:30 pm

Location

CSH Salon

Organizer

Complexity Science Hub
Email
events@csh.ac.at
  • Attendance: on site
  • Language: EN

Event

Modeling Dengue Outbreaks from Imported Cases in Non-Endemic Countries

System Dynamics (SD) models have been used to understand complex, multi-faceted dengue transmission dynamics, but a gap persists between research and actionable public health tools for decision-making. Spain is an at-risk country for imported dengue outbreaks, but only qualitative assessments are available to guide public health action and control. We propose a modular SD model combining temperature-dependent vector population, transmission parameters, and epidemiological interactions to simulate outbreaks from imported cases accounting for heterogeneous local climate-related transmission patterns. Under our assumptions, 15 provinces sustain vector populations capable of generating outbreaks from imported cases, with heterogeneous risk profiles regarding seasonality, magnitude, and risk window shifting from late Spring to early autumn. Results being relative to given vector-to-human populations allow flexibility when translating outcomes between geographic scales. The model and the framework are meant to serve public health by incorporating transmission dynamics and quantitative-qualitative input into the evidence-based decision-making chain. It is a flexible tool that can easily adapt to changing contexts, parameterizations, and epidemiological settings thanks to the modular approach.

RSVP

Speaker(s)

portrait of Javier

Javier Del Águila Mejía

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