Are human societies dynamical systems? Can they be studied—and, perhaps, to a degree predicted—with the methods of complexity science, such as agent-based models and big data analytics? If yes, what are the limits to prediction? A particularly challenging question is, can we forecast the dynamics of societal resilience and its obverse, sociopolitical unrest or even breakdown? The CSH research team on Social Complexity and Collapse uses an approach, based on Structural-Demographic Theory (SDT), which integrates mechanism-based models with data and focuses on the dynamics of structural drivers for instability over the long term (thus, requiring a historical approach).

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