Once set into motion, how have the crises of the past played out? The Seshat databank’s Consequences of Crisis (CrisisDB) data set aims to help answer this question by providing codings for the qualitative outcomes of 168 crises from around the world and throughout the historical record. Despite the rich body of information presented, it remains hard to draw conclusions from the data due to its high dimensionality and low-N nature. In the first year of his PhD, Harry has tried to find structure in CrisisDB by adopting a Bayesian latent-variable framework, and on Tuesday he will present some of the difficulties and learnings associated with such a task. Preliminary results garnered from this methodology suggest a 4-fold typology of historical crisis which supports the heuristic that — throughout history — crisis have experienced positive reform and avoided the worst, most violent outcomes of crisis only about 10% of the time. Finally, Harry is excited to share with you some ideas for the rest of his PhD and benefit from your feedback on this current project as well as where he might go next in order to answer questions about the current “crisis” that we live through, in addition to those of the past.