Event

Adaptively Compensating Food Shortages Exacerbates Food Inequality

31 March 2026
Expired!
12:30 pm - 1:00 pm

Location

Complexity Science Hub
Complexity Science Hub, Metternichgasse 8, 1030 Vienna

  • Attendance on site
  • Language EN

Event

Adaptively Compensating Food Shortages Exacerbates Food Inequality

Global food production and trade networks are highly dynamic, especially when countries adjust their supply strategies in response to shortages. In this study, we examine adjustments across 123 agri-food products from 192 countries, resulting in 23, 616 individual scenarios of food shortage, and calibrate a multi-layer network model to understand the propagation of the shocks. While shock propagation on food supply networks has been studied, the adaptive potential of these networks is often omitted, which might exacerbate food inequality. We analyze shock mitigation actions, such as increasing imports, boosting production, or substituting food items. Our findings indicate that these lead to spillover effects, potentially exacerbating food inequality: an Indian rice shock resulted in a 5.8% increase in rice losses in countries with a low Human Development Index (HDI) and a 14.2% decrease in those with a high HDI. Considering multiple interacting shocks leads to unintended consequences of adaptation with super-additive losses of up to 12% of the total available food volume across the global food production network. This framework allows us to identify combinations of shocks that pose substantial systemic risks and undermine the resilience of the global food supply, highlighting the urgent need for targeted buffering strategies in vulnerable nations.

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